LOGICALLY UNDERSTANDING ARGUMENTS CONCERNING
GLOBAL WARMING OF EARTH'S SURFACE -
An outline for studying the science of Part II of (*)123.

Professor Owen E. Thompson
University of Maryland College Park
Copyright, 1996
The chains of argument illustrated below are intended to help you sort through the various aspects of the science of global warming, as it has been developed in class.The arguments are presented in a "short-hand" notation which provides a convenient way to summarize key points of an argument prior to writing a scholarly essay or paper on the topic. Even though the notation may intimidate you at first glance, it provides a powerful method for you to logically organize the detailed information covered in class into a more coherent picture for easier recollection. The symbolic format also provides an opportunity to see logical or illogical patterns in arguments which are not always so easy to detect when presented in "free verse" or "free journalism" form.

Each of the chains of argument begins with a "GIVEN", and then the remainder of the argument represents a collection of individual scientific effects which have been discussed in class relating to the impact on earth's surface temperature.

For study purposes, students should review their course materials to assure that you understand the scientific principles behind each part of each argument chain.

As illustrated in some of the more complex arguments, you will not be able to deduce or induce an incontrovertible conclusion about global warming, since the arguments often include counter balancing scientific effects. You will be held responsible for understanding the logical chain of thescientific arguments, but not for accurately forecasting true global change.

In the arguments below, the arrow symbols represent the following shorthand notation:

Read the symbol as "increases" or "would increase"
Read the symbol as "decreases" or "would decrease"
Read the symbol as "would lead to"

The "would lead to" arrow connects the phrase which is aligned vertically above it to a conclusion. Thus, each "would lead to" element of the argument chain takes the conclusion of a prior phrase as a "given", and forms a new conclusion from it. The upward pointing portion of the "would lead to" arrow is aligned with the phrase forming the "given" for that element of the argument chain. Thus, pay particular attention to the indentation of the entire argument chain.

1. THE SIMPLE GREENHOUSE WARMING THEORY

2. A SIMPLE LOOK AT CONVECTION

3. IMPLICATIONS OF EVAPORATION

4. THE CONCEPT OF FEEDBACK

5. POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FEEDBACK

6. FEEDBACK LOOPS, CYCLES, AND RUN-AWAY CHANGE

7. CONVECTION IS CYCLIC, OVER THE LONG HAUL

8. MID-LATITUDE STORMINESS IS CYCLIC, OVER THE LONG HAUL